So Bitcoin is crashing and while the true believer thinks it will whip around and head to $120,000, this developing crash is what I’ve been calling here on Seeking Alpha on previous recent posts.

The market doesn’t listen to me, I simply make my models and see if they pan out. I’ve been fortunate so far both on calling this bull market and in jumping off cryptocurrency into DeFi, then NFTs and finally out entirely with a decent helping of luck on my side. However, I’m not Nostradamus; instead I draw the simplest charts I can, then see if they come to pass.

Consequently, I have a simple chart for how this crash - if it continues as I expect - will develop. The simplest chart would be a replay of 2018, and I do believe that will be a reasonable, if sloppy, guide in the short term. It suggests down, way on down, but this time circumstances are not exactly the same.

The top of this bull is longer and therefore broader, and the rise is greater because of the entrance of institutions. This changes how a crash will play out.

What follows is a chart I think will be the shape of this crash if this is the cycle-end I’m expecting. It just shows the coming few weeks, not the next year or two.

    Why is this happening?

This is the end of the Bitcoin four-year cycle and everything follows from that.

People of course want narrative… “Why oh why is my money going to money heaven?” they say, as if “It is a four-year cycle,” is not a good enough explanation. To me, it is as simple as that and this model has served me extremely well. So why give up on it now as it continues to call the big moves?

If we see the low $30,000s soon, it will then be a question of will we see $10,000-$20,000. To me, that’s possible because when the ‘I bought at the top’ brigade stampedes for the exit, it will get extremely spicy.

This article will anger many, but remember, this is a four-year cycle; we will get two-to-three years of opportunity to buy BTC etc. very cheaply and the next halvening should see BTC up to $100,000. This is where my focus lies. I will acquire for the next boom/bubble.

For me it is that simple: sell the bubble, buy the crash and the following crypto winter. I did that after 2017 and I’ve sold the bubble and am waiting to buy the aftermath of the crash this time around.

There will be no hurry because the next crypto winter will be as long as the last and the coming boom will likely be twice as high as this one.

What could be better?